Daley Goes Down

When Steve Warmbir and Tim Novak at the Sun-Times began bludgeoning Daley with the Hired Truck cudgel, I figured the whole mess would blow over eventually like so many others. It hasn’t, and Daley has thus far been incapable of staying ahead of the news cycle. He announces a change over here in the afternoon, but over there earlier that morning someone else got indicted or pleaded guilty.

I assumed early on that Daley would tough it out, that by the time the 2007 election rolled around all this would be forgotten. It won’t. And now I’m starting to wonder if Daley will even run again. Smart money would still have to bet on him to win, but his disapproval rating is on the rise and the media sharks are circling, waiting for someone with any kind of name recognition at all to announce they’re running.

This person, if he is out there, should be careful not to announce too soon. For instance, if someone were to announce next week, or even before the end of this year, it leaves way too much time for the media love fest to climax and subside. An announcement has to be timed for the middle of the third quarter of 2006, I believe, to most effectively ride the twin waves of scandal and disdain into office. No one will beat Daley by arguing Chicago is worse off than it was when he took office. No one will win by saying he’ll reduce crime that’s already falling. The road to City Hall will be paved with the bones of scandal, and they will have to be fresh bones, at that. There is still enough time for Daley to save himself if he isn’t indicted and if he can show he’s cracking the whip on patronage and waste and corruption. The prudent strategy for any challenger is to wait at least a year and see what happens.